The Cincinnati Bengals entered the season as contenders for the AFC title. Through 10 games, they are instead fighting for their playoff lives — facing a must-win situation against the Los Angeles Chargers. The two teams will square off on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 11, each with something to prove with their seasons going in opposite directions.
The Chargers (6-3) are 6-0 against teams currently .500 or better, which is why they are in the thick of the AFC playoff picture. The Bengals (4-6), meanwhile, haven’t beaten a team that is currently .500 or better (4-1 against under. 500 teams).
If the Bengals wish to make a playoff run in the AFC, this matchup against the Chargers is pivotal. The Chargers can put the Bengals in a hole that will be very hard do dig out of in regards to the AFC playoff race, while solidifying their own playoff case.
Here’s how the watch the “Sunday Night Football” showdown, along with a short preview:
Where to watch Bengals vs. Chargers
Date: Sunday, Nov. 17 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, California
TV: NBC — Live stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chargers -1.5, OU 48 (via BetMGM)
Check out the latest BetMGM promo code to get in the game.
Joe Burrow vs. Chargers defense
The Chargers defense is the best in the NFL, as its 13.1 points per game allowed is the fewest allowed by any team in a season since the 2006 Baltimore Ravens. Only one team has even scored 20 points against the Chargers this season, which was the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3 (they scored exactly 20). The Chargers have allowed just 11.7 points per game over the last three games, and their 1.18 points allowed per possession is first in the league.
Burrow will be one of the toughest tests for the No. 1 scoring defense. As bad as the Bengals have been playing, Burrow hasn’t. He’s the NFL leader in completions (246) and passing yards (2,672) this season entering Week 11, and has nine passing touchdowns in his last two games. The Bengals have averaged 37.5 points per game over that stretch, yet are just 1-1 despite Burrow playing well.
Ja’Marr Chase is the NFL leader in receptions (66), receiving yards (981), and receiving touchdowns (10) this season — and is coming off a 264-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Baltimore Ravens. The Burrow-Chase combination has been the most dynamic quarterback-wide receiver duo in the NFL this season. They will be a good test for the Chargers — who are the first team since the 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars to allow fewer than 21 points and fewer than 375 total yards in each of its first nine games.
Prediction
As well as the Chargers have played on defense, their success also boils down to Justin Herbert over the last several weeks. Herbert has a career-high 103.2 passer rating this season with 11 touchdowns to just one interception — the second-highest TD/INT ratio in the NFL (11.0) behind Lamar Jackson (12.0). Since the bye week, Herbert has the fifth-highest explosive pass rate (percentage of completions for 20+ yards) and the third-lowest off-target rate (6.0%) in that span.
Herbert against the 23rd-ranked pass defense (347.5 yards per game) and the 26th-ranked defense in points per possession allowed (2.33) just seems like a mismatch. The Bengals need Burrow and the offense to significantly carry them this week to have a shot, which they can do on any given week.
Score: Chargers 28, Bengals 22
Bonus: SportsLine expert R.J. White is on an 18-6 against-the-spread roll on Bengals games. We can tell you he’s leaning Under on the points total, but who does he have ATS?